Carlisle United 1-3 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.84
6+ Goals
11%
16.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.97
1/2
12%
26.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
11%
6.65
X/2
12%
4.6
X/X
12%
4.44
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.98
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading EU Bookmakers 48%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.01/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.63
-34% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -48%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
305 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 73%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.9 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Reading
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
0.80 xG 2.09
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
243 Passes 346
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.11.2023 Reading Reading 5-1 HT 3-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-3
AWAY Reading
0.59 xG 1.11
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
302 Passes 371
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading saw off Carlisle United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Reading found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 47% of the ball to Reading's 53%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.59 to 1.11.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Reading?

Carlisle United 1-3 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated an Reading win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 33%, draw 27%, Reading 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Reading), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Reading) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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