Millwall 1-0 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Mar 2024

Millwall
1-0 HT 1-0
Watford
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Millwall vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.46
6+ Goals
10%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.63
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
14%
5.08
X/2
15%
5.69
X/X
16%
3.99
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
16%
4.25
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Watford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +24%
1.29/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.25
-12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
286 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 74%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.5 Crosses 17.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Millwall vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Watford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.98 xG 1.36
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
220 Passes 360
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Watford Watford 2-2 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.12.2022 Watford Watford 0-2 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
19.10.2022 Millwall Millwall 3-0 HT 3-0 Watford Watford İNCL
24.04.2021 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.01.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
29.01.2017 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford FAK

Millwall 1-0 Watford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Watford
0.49 xG 0.56
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
169 Passes 440
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall nicked a narrow win over Watford 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Millwall found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Millwall had 34% of the ball to Watford's 66%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.49 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Millwall and 0.50 for Watford.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Watford?

Millwall 1-0 Watford in the England - Championship on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated an Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Millwall 34%, draw 28%, Watford 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Watford) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Watford) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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