Stoke City 2-0 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 30% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.3
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.25
X/2
13%
6.09
X/X
14%
4.8
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
18%
4.06
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-6.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.1pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 37%
-15% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.22/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.08
-36% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 72%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
24.0 Crosses 17.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
318 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
14.03.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
17.08.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
30.04.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
11.12.2021 Stoke City Stoke City 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
13.03.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-0 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
2-0
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.25 xG 0.63
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
216 Passes 416
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City got the better of Middlesbrough 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Stoke City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Stoke City had 38% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 62%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.25 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Stoke City and 1.50 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Stoke City 2-0 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 34%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 38%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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