Luton Town 2-3 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
45%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.49
No
39%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.75
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
30%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
6.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
19.55
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
10%
9.56
X/2
10%
4.37
X/X
6%
6.49
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.12
2/X
10%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.55 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
23%
+9.0pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.3pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-9.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
-2.4pp
39%
BTTS No
37%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 58%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.91/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.74
+54% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -17%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 81%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.2
29.3 Crosses 25.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Aston Villa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 2.28
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
188 Passes 558
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
15 Box Touches 44
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
10.08.2016 Luton Town Luton Town 3-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
2-3
AWAY Aston Villa
1.77 xG 1.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 6
307 Passes 379
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 22
31 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Luton Town 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luton Town had 47% of the ball to Aston Villa's 53%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.77 to 1.95.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Luton Town and 2.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Aston Villa?

Luton Town 2-3 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 32%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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