Pau 2-3 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 2 Mar 2024

Pau
2-3 HT 0-1
Caen
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.44
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
12%
5.87
X/2
15%
4.92
X/X
14%
4.01
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.48
2/X
5%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.27/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.02
+23% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.0 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Caen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.79 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
303 Passes 462
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.06.2023 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
30.08.2022 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 1-1 Pau Pau FR2
19.02.2022 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
11.09.2021 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 1-1 Pau Pau FR2
03.04.2021 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
2-3
AWAY Caen
1.24 xG 0.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
435 Passes 329
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pau vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen edged past Pau 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Caen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pau had 56% of the ball to Caen's 44%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.24 to 0.75 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pau.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pau and 0.83 for Caen.

What was the final score of Pau vs Caen?

Pau 2-3 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pau 35%, draw 27%, Caen 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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