Hibernian 2-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 2 Mar 2025

Hibernian
2-1 HT 1-1
Hearts
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.5
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
11%
5.52
X/2
16%
6.11
X/X
16%
4.54
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
17%
4.1
2/X
5%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
-6.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+6.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hibernian v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hibernian EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.50/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.30
+16% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
266 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 69%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
21.9 Crosses 20.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hibernian vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hibernian
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Hearts
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.84 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 286
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.10.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 1-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
28.02.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.12.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
07.10.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-2 HT 1-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.05.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP

Hibernian 2-1 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hibernian
2-1
AWAY Hearts
0.61 xG 0.69
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 296
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hibernian vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hibernian nicked a narrow win over Hearts 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Hibernian found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hibernian had 46% of the ball to Hearts's 54%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.61 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hibernian and 1.17 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Hibernian vs Hearts?

Hibernian 2-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hibernian vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hibernian 32%, draw 29%, Hearts 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
2 Mar 2025
18:00 Aberdeen vs Dundee United Analysis →