Hearts 1-2 Hibernian — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 26 Dec 2024

Hearts
1-2 HT 1-1
Hibernian
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hearts vs Hibernian Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.93
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
14%
4.77
X/2
10%
6.98
X/X
16%
4.65
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
11%
5.02
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Hibernian — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Hibernian EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.42/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.24
+3% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 65%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
21.8 Crosses 19.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hearts vs Hibernian Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Hibernian
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
280 Passes 228
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 1-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
28.02.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.12.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
07.10.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-2 HT 1-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.05.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
15.04.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 1-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP

Hearts 1-2 Hibernian — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-2
AWAY Hibernian
0.70 xG 1.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
344 Passes 134
77% Pass Accuracy 59%
29 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Hibernian
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hibernian squeezed past Hearts 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hearts at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hearts had 67% of the ball to Hibernian's 33%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.70 to 1.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hibernian's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hearts and 1.00 for Hibernian.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Hibernian?

Hearts 1-2 Hibernian in the Scotland - Premiership on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Hibernian?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hearts 41%, draw 28%, Hibernian 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5
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