Kilmarnock 4-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
41%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.85
6+ Goals
12%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.5
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
13%
5.19
X/2
11%
5.91
X/X
8%
4.45
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
23%
4.2
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
41%
Away Win
33%
+7.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.55/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.41
+12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
264 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 67%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.9 Crosses 19.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 1.15
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
171 Passes 247
59% Pass Accuracy 65%
23 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
09.03.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
24.02.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
06.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
29.10.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
08.04.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
4-0
AWAY Aberdeen
4.02 xG 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
24 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
233 Passes 298
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 19
38 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock swept aside Aberdeen 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aberdeen at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 47% of the ball to Aberdeen's 53%, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 4.02 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.17 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?

Kilmarnock 4-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 34%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 41%. The final score 4-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ BTTS Yes
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