Osasuna 3-3 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
4.24
6+ Goals
8%
21.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.04
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.0
X/1
14%
4.8
X/2
12%
6.98
X/X
12%
3.97
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
13%
5.46
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.43/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.38
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
25.5 Crosses 16.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valencia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
264 Passes 290
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
15.04.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 0-1 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
27.08.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
11.03.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
07.10.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
16.04.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
3-3
AWAY Valencia
1.53 xG 1.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
380 Passes 379
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna and Valencia shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Osasuna at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osasuna had 51% of the ball to Valencia's 49%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.53 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Valencia?

Osasuna 3-3 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 41%, draw 27%, Valencia 32%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osasuna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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