Boussu Dour Borinage 1-0 Lierse Kempenzonen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 28%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.63/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.48
-10% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
22.3 Crosses 19.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.85 xG 1.78
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
238 Passes 361
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 4-0 HT 2-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
02.03.2024 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 3-1 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
17.09.2023 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 2-0 HT 1-0 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
1-0
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen
0.58 xG 0.32
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
257 Passes 397
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lierse Kempenzonen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boussu Dour Borinage edged past Lierse Kempenzonen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Boussu Dour Borinage as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Boussu Dour Borinage had 42% of the ball to Lierse Kempenzonen's 58%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.58 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lierse Kempenzonen led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boussu Dour Borinage and 2.33 for Lierse Kempenzonen.

What was the final score of Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

Boussu Dour Borinage 1-0 Lierse Kempenzonen in the Belgium - 1st Division on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boussu Dour Borinage win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Boussu Dour Borinage 43%, draw 28%, Lierse Kempenzonen 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boussu Dour Borinage), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Boussu Dour Borinage) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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