Debrecen 1-2 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.6
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Debrecen EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -12%
1.44/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.71
+2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
24.0 Crosses 14.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Debrecen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 1.16
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
398 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 2-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
12.05.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
18.02.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
22.10.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 3-1 HT 2-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.04.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
04.02.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-1 HT 0-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Debrecen
1-2
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.93 xG 2.21
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
554 Passes 173
83% Pass Accuracy 62%
42 Box Touches 11
37 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Debrecen vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar squeezed past Debrecen 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Debrecen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Debrecen had 71% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 29%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.93 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Debrecen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Debrecen and 0.83 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of Debrecen vs MOL Fehervar?

Debrecen 1-2 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - NB I on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Debrecen vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Debrecen 45%, draw 27%, MOL Fehervar 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Debrecen), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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