Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tlaxcala v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Tlaxcala 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Actual Match Statistics
Tlaxcala nicked a narrow win over Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tlaxcala as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Tlaxcala had 64% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 36%, shots finished 15-7.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tlaxcala and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.
What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Tlaxcala 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tlaxcala win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 42%, draw 22%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tlaxcala), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.