Tlaxcala 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 2 Mar 2026

📅02/03/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.0
Over
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
43%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.4pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos The Market 40%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +6%
0.96/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.86
-33% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +55%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
20.09.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-1 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala MEK2
26.01.2025 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala 2-2 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
11.08.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala MEK2
05.04.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-1 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala MEK2
14.10.2023 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
15.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tlaxcala
1-0
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala nicked a narrow win over Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tlaxcala as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tlaxcala had 64% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 36%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tlaxcala and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Tlaxcala 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tlaxcala win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 42%, draw 22%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tlaxcala), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tlaxcala) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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