Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 20 Sep 2025

Tepatitlán de Morelos
1-2 HT 0-1
Tlaxcala
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2025/2026

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.1pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tepatitlán de Morelos v Tlaxcala — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
2.27/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.75
+29% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tlaxcala
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
The Meetings
26.01.2025 Tlaxcala 2-2 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
11.08.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
05.04.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
14.10.2023 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
15.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
21.09.2022 Tlaxcala 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala nicked a narrow win over Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Tepatitlán de Morelos carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.83 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 57%, draw 20%, Tlaxcala 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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