Tlaxcala 2-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.0pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 43%
-15% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.83/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.80
-38% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +44%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
11.08.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
05.04.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
14.10.2023 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
15.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
21.09.2022 Tlaxcala 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
26.01.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala and Tepatitlán de Morelos couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tlaxcala and 0.67 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Tlaxcala 2-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 31%, draw 27%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
26 Jan 2025
02:00 Monarcas Morelia vs Atlante Analysis →
04:00 Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros Udeg Analysis →
04:05 Cancun FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Analysis →
06:00 CDS Tampico Madero vs CD Tapatio Analysis →
06:05 Celaya vs Venados Analysis →