Celaya 1-1 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
13%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.4pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.4pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.81/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.92
-7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Venados
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
10.11.2024 Celaya Celaya 4-1 HT 2-1 Venados Venados MEK2
07.11.2024 Venados Venados 3-4 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
10.08.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
06.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 0-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
17.09.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
26.03.2023 Celaya Celaya 2-1 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya and Venados couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Celaya carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Celaya and 1.50 for Venados.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Venados?

Celaya 1-1 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Celaya 55%, draw 20%, Venados 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celaya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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