Celaya 4-1 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.5pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.8pp
20%
Away Win
23%
-3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.61/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.52
-10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
344 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Venados
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
07.11.2024 Venados Venados 3-4 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
10.08.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
06.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 0-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
17.09.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
26.03.2023 Celaya Celaya 2-1 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
15.07.2022 Venados Venados 3-2 HT 2-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya cruised past Venados 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celaya and 1.83 for Venados.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Venados?

Celaya 4-1 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Celaya 49%, draw 31%, Venados 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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