Milan 1-1 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 2 Apr 2025

Milan
1-1 HT 0-0
Inter
📅02/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Milan vs Inter Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.56
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
15%
6.55
X/2
16%
5.43
X/X
12%
4.35
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
18%
3.4
2/X
6%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.6pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Inter — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
0.79/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.23
-32% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +67%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 83%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
17.7 Crosses 26.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Milan vs Inter Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Inter
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.49 xG 1.59
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
369 Passes 391
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.02.2025 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
06.01.2025 Inter Inter 2-3 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTSK
22.09.2024 Inter Inter 1-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.04.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
16.05.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan ŞMP

Milan 1-1 Inter — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-1
AWAY Inter
0.74 xG 1.54
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
274 Passes 466
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Inter couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Milan had 38% of the ball to Inter's 62%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.74 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Milan and 2.00 for Inter.

What was the final score of Milan vs Inter?

Milan 1-1 Inter in the Italy - Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Milan 36%, draw 24%, Inter 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Inter) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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