Milan 1-1 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Feb 2025

Milan
1-1 HT 1-0
Inter
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Inter Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.4
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
10%
8.52
X/2
15%
4.55
X/X
11%
4.89
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.43
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.4 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Inter — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 55%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.18/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.15
-25% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +31%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 83%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
18.6 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Milan vs Inter Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Inter
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.54 xG 1.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
384 Passes 346
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.01.2025 Inter Inter 2-3 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTSK
22.09.2024 Inter Inter 1-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.04.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
16.05.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
10.05.2023 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter ŞMP

Milan 1-1 Inter — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-1
AWAY Inter
0.61 xG 1.35
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 11
305 Passes 544
85% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 44
11 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Inter shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Inter at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Milan had 38% of the ball to Inter's 62%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.61 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Milan and 2.17 for Inter.

What was the final score of Milan vs Inter?

Milan 1-1 Inter in the Italy - Serie A on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Milan 26%, draw 26%, Inter 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Inter), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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