Roma 1-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Feb 2025

Roma
1-1 HT 0-1
Napoli
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Roma vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 31% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.3
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
6.94
X/2
16%
4.81
X/X
14%
4.17
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.0
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 6.94 — our 16% vs market 10.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roma v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 48%
+10% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +13%
1.29/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.06
+3% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.5 Crosses 15.1
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Roma vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.90 xG 1.05
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
319 Passes 444
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Napoli Napoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
28.04.2024 Napoli Napoli 2-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.12.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.01.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.10.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
18.04.2022 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA

Roma 1-1 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-1
AWAY Napoli
0.52 xG 0.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
415 Passes 402
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma and Napoli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Roma had 51% of the ball to Napoli's 49%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.52 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roma and 1.17 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Roma vs Napoli?

Roma 1-1 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roma 31%, draw 26%, Napoli 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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