Napoli 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

Napoli
1-0 HT 0-0
Roma
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.71
Over 2.5
55%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.18
6+ Goals
12%
20.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
16%
3.85
X/2
6%
9.76
X/X
11%
4.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
27.0
2/2
12%
8.24
2/X
8%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 6% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
55%
-9.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
45%
+9.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.56/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.52
+0% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
462 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.4 Crosses 16.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Roma
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 1.08
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
428 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.04.2024 Napoli Napoli 2-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.12.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.01.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.10.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
18.04.2022 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
24.10.2021 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.39 xG 0.58
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
564 Passes 290
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli squeezed past Roma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Napoli had 63% of the ball to Roma's 37%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.39 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Roma.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Roma?

Napoli 1-0 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Napoli 53%, draw 24%, Roma 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
24 Nov 2024
14:30 Genoa vs Cagliari Analysis →
17:00 Torino vs Monza Analysis →
17:00 Como vs Fiorentina Analysis →
22:45 Lazio vs Bologna Analysis →