Genoa 2-2 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

Genoa
2-2 HT 1-1
Cagliari
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Genoa vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.85
6+ Goals
12%
16.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.85 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.52
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
13%
5.33
X/2
15%
6.08
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.26
2/X
9%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genoa v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.45/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.39
+11% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.1 Crosses 21.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Genoa vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.01 xG 0.94
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
369 Passes 260
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.04.2024 Genoa Genoa 3-0 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
05.11.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 2-1 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
01.03.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTB
07.10.2022 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
24.04.2022 Genoa Genoa 1-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
12.09.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 2-3 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA

Genoa 2-2 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
2-2
AWAY Cagliari
1.76 xG 3.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
365 Passes 324
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa and Cagliari shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Genoa had 52% of the ball to Cagliari's 48%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 1.76 to 3.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Genoa and 0.67 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Cagliari?

Genoa 2-2 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Genoa 36%, draw 28%, Cagliari 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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