Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Feb 2025

Fiorentina
2-1 HT 2-0
Genoa
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.51
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.47
X/2
7%
8.19
X/X
15%
4.67
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
12%
6.38
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Genoa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.69/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.11
+6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.5 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Fiorentina vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Genoa
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.36 xG 0.82
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
490 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.10.2024 Genoa Genoa 0-1 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
15.04.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
19.08.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-4 HT 0-3 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
17.01.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 6-0 HT 3-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
18.09.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.04.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA

Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-1
AWAY Genoa
0.73 xG 1.57
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
227 Passes 330
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 33
7 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina edged past Genoa 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 40% of the ball to Genoa's 60%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.73 to 1.57 — the balance of chances actually favoured Genoa.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Fiorentina and 0.67 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Genoa?

Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 45%, draw 28%, Genoa 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5
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