Nacional Potosi 2-0 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.81
No
58%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.44
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
13%
5.24
X/2
12%
6.29
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.57
2/X
5%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.3pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.8pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Potosi EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Potosi
2-0
AWAY Independiente
1.52 xG 0.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
257 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nacional Potosi vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Potosi beat Independiente 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional Potosi as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Nacional Potosi had 45% of the ball to Independiente's 55%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.52 to 0.52.

What was the final score of Nacional Potosi vs Independiente?

Nacional Potosi 2-0 Independiente in the Copa Sudamericana on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Potosi vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Potosi win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nacional Potosi 41%, draw 25%, Independiente 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Potosi), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Potosi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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