Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.69
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.08
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.94
X/2
10%
6.74
X/X
12%
4.61
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
17%
4.97
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
1.37/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.92
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
21.5 Crosses 21.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 3
21.03.2015 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.37 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
315 Passes 329
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Fagiano Okayama 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 48% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 52%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.37 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 37%, draw 28%, Fagiano Okayama 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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