Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
18.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.89
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.66
X/2
15%
7.2
X/X
14%
4.46
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
5.61
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
1.36/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.26
-4% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.6 Crosses 18.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 Passes 333
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-2 HT 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
15.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-3 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
08.07.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
01.04.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.08.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.05.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-0
AWAY Kashima Antlers
2.70 xG 0.53
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 8
227 Passes 440
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima squeezed past Kashima Antlers 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 38% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 62%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 2.70 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.17 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ BTTS Yes
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