Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.59
Over 2.5
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.42
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.73
6+ Goals
7%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.42 — our 36% vs market 34.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.95
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.95
X/1
11%
4.59
X/2
11%
7.33
X/X
18%
3.92
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
11%
6.06
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.0pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.44/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.14
+3% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
17.3 Crosses 15.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 0.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
493 Passes 369
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
18.06.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 HT 1-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JLK
26.03.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 1-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
16.07.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 HT 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
06.04.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 1-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
27.11.2021 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
07.04.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-2 HT 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
2-1
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
0.40 xG 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 14
376 Passes 457
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 40
8 Crosses 40
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds nicked a narrow win over Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 44% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 56%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.40 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Shimizu S-Pulse.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Urawa Red Diamonds had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Urawa Red Diamonds and 0.83 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 41%, draw 29%, Shimizu S-Pulse 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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