Benfica 3-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.16
Draw
16%
7.13
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.63
Over 2.5
52%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.09
No
64%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
6.02
2-3 Goals
39%
2.09
4-5 Goals
26%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.02 — our 23% vs market 12.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.28
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
29.5
X/1
21%
3.84
X/2
4%
31.5
X/X
7%
11.0
2/1
6%
23.75
2/2
5%
27.5
2/X
4%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
82%
-10.0pp
16%
Draw
11%
+4.3pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
34%
+13.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
66%
-13.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.9pp
64%
BTTS No
56%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
2.86/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/2.54
+14% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +29%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
510 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 78%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.1
22.8 Crosses 11.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Farense
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.33 xG 0.74
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
494 Passes 203
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
43 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2025 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POK
02.11.2024 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
12.07.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-0 Farense Farense HAZ
22.04.2024 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR
08.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
21.02.2021 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-2
AWAY Farense
2.36 xG 1.66
71% Ball Possession 29%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
492 Passes 148
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Farense 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica had 71% of the ball to Farense's 29%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.36 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Farense.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Farense?

Benfica 3-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Benfica 72%, draw 16%, Farense 12%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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