Basel 3-1 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 2 May 2026

Basel
3-1 HT 1-1
Thun
📅02/05/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
29%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.76
1/2
6%
22.65
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
14%
6.41
X/2
8%
5.81
X/X
8%
5.65
2/1
7%
24.35
2/2
20%
3.22
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
11.9
Value flag · 2/X at 11.9 — our 11% vs market 5.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.6pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.47/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.14
-10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
18.1 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Thun
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.95 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2026 Thun Thun 3-1 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
01.02.2026 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV
13.09.2025 Thun Thun 1-3 HT 0-2 Basel Basel İSV
31.07.2020 Thun Thun 0-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
15.02.2020 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
19.10.2019 Basel Basel 3-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
3-1
AWAY Thun
2.02 xG 0.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
308 Passes 185
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
38 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Basel vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel beat Thun 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Basel made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Basel had 60% of the ball to Thun's 40%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.02 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Basel and 1.33 for Thun.

What was the final score of Basel vs Thun?

Basel 3-1 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basel 40%, draw 25%, Thun 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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