York United 4-1 Atletico Ottawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.02
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 27% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.6pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York United EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
1.13/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.22
+10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.8 Crosses 10.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Atletico Ottawa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.86 xG 1.28
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
353 Passes 513
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 York United York United 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
03.08.2025 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 0-0 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL
22.06.2025 York United York United 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
19.04.2025 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 3-2 HT 0-1 York United York United KAPL
27.10.2024 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-2 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL
07.10.2024 York United York United 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York United
4-1
AWAY Atletico Ottawa
1.84 xG 0.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
401 Passes 462
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH York United vs Atletico Ottawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York United ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Ottawa 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had York United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, York United had 47% of the ball to Atletico Ottawa's 53%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.84 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for York United and 1.17 for Atletico Ottawa.

What was the final score of York United vs Atletico Ottawa?

York United 4-1 Atletico Ottawa in the Kanada - Premier League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York United vs Atletico Ottawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a York United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split York United 44%, draw 24%, Atletico Ottawa 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (York United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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