Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 2 Aug 2026

📅02/08/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.39
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.67
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
9%
19.0
X/1
13%
3.66
X/2
6%
14.9
X/X
8%
5.93
2/1
14%
24.35
2/2
7%
13.6
2/X
6%
22.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-8.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -9%
2.12/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.94
+13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 72%
33.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
20.5 Crosses 13.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Fakel
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.18 xG 1.07
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
442 Passes 164
83% Pass Accuracy 65%
25 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 5-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
04.08.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
19.04.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
25.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
05.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 1-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.07.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 2-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
3-2
AWAY Fakel
0.82 xG 2.10
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
377 Passes 259
21 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar nicked a narrow win over Fakel 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.82 to 2.10 — the balance of chances actually favoured Fakel.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Krasnodar and 0.83 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 02/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 60%, draw 23%, Fakel 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
2 Aug 2026
16:00 FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg Analysis →
20:30 FC Akhmat Grozny vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →