Monza 0-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Nov 2024

Monza
0-1 HT 0-1
Milan
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Monza vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
58%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.88
1/2
5%
24.85
1/X
5%
16.05
X/1
9%
10.95
X/2
16%
3.86
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
37%
2.05
2/X
4%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.9pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.9pp
58%
Away Win
57%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 61%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -9%
1.11/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.12
+38% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -25%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 83%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
15.8 Crosses 17.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Monza vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Milan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 1.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
396 Passes 390
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-1 Monza Monza İTBK
18.02.2024 Monza Monza 4-2 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
17.12.2023 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
08.08.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTBK
18.02.2023 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.10.2022 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA

Monza 0-1 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
0-1
AWAY Milan
1.21 xG 2.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
309 Passes 425
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Monza 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Monza had 44% of the ball to Milan's 56%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.21 to 2.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milan's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monza and 2.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Monza vs Milan?

Monza 0-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Monza 21%, draw 21%, Milan 58%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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