Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Saarbrücken — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.86
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.92
X/2
12%
5.47
X/X
10%
4.78
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.46
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.0pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.29/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.29
-9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Saarbrücken
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
07.10.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
26.02.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
20.08.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
24.02.2006 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
21.09.2005 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-1
AWAY Saarbrücken
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Saarbrücken
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue and Saarbrücken shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 44% of the ball to Saarbrücken's 56%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.67 for Saarbrücken.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Saarbrücken?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Saarbrücken in the Germany - 3rd Division on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Saarbrücken?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 36%, draw 26%, Saarbrücken 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saarbrücken), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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