Saarbrücken 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 9 Mar 2024

Saarbrücken
2-0 HT 2-0
Erzgebirge Aue
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.14
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.25
X/1
11%
3.9
X/2
7%
9.6
X/X
11%
5.41
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
12%
7.37
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.9
Value flag · 2/X at 15.9 — our 10% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saarbrücken v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.64/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.70
-9% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
24.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
26.02.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
20.08.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
24.02.2006 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
21.09.2005 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL2
15.05.2005 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL2

Saarbrücken 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
2-0
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saarbrücken saw off Erzgebirge Aue 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saarbrücken as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 46% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 54%, shots finished 17-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.50 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Saarbrücken 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 47%, draw 27%, Erzgebirge Aue 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saarbrücken) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ BTTS Yes
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