Freiburg II 3-0 Lübeck — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.22
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.5
X/1
10%
5.84
X/2
15%
5.06
X/X
9%
4.31
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
20%
3.46
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 1/X at 13.5 — our 12% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lübeck EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-17% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg II
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lübeck
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2023 Lübeck Lübeck 0-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg II
3-0
AWAY Lübeck
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg II vs Lübeck
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II swept aside Lübeck 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lübeck at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Freiburg II had 62% of the ball to Lübeck's 38%, shots finished 16-10.

What was the final score of Freiburg II vs Lübeck?

Freiburg II 3-0 Lübeck in the Germany - 3rd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg II vs Lübeck?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lübeck win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Freiburg II 33%, draw 27%, Lübeck 41%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lübeck) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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