CD Castellon vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
CD Castellon v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
CD Castellon vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Malaga
İS3
3-0
HT 1-0
CD Castellon
İS2
0-1
HT 0-1
Malaga
İS2
CD Castellon 2-1 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
CD Castellon squeezed past Malaga 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had CD Castellon as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, CD Castellon had 51% of the ball to Malaga's 49%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.51 to 1.24.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CD Castellon and 1.00 for Malaga.
What was the final score of CD Castellon vs Malaga?
CD Castellon 2-1 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for CD Castellon vs Malaga?
Before kick-off our model rated a CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split CD Castellon 53%, draw 25%, Malaga 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Castellon) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.