CD Castellon 2-1 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 2 Nov 2025

📅02/11/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
2.0
Over
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.59
2-3
43%
1.8
4-5
20%
3.19
6+
8%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.59 — our 29% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
8%
9.73
X/X
12%
5.43
2/1
9%
22.25
2/2
8%
7.63
2/X
5%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
CD Castellon win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 23%
-18% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.96/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.44
-3% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.4 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Castellon
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Malaga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
359 Passes 260
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
27.04.2025 Malaga Malaga 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
01.12.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
21.01.2024 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3
26.08.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS3
30.05.2021 Malaga Malaga 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
19.09.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Castellon
2-1
AWAY Malaga
1.51 xG 1.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
289 Passes 273
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CD Castellon vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon squeezed past Malaga 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had CD Castellon as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, CD Castellon had 51% of the ball to Malaga's 49%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.51 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CD Castellon and 1.00 for Malaga.

What was the final score of CD Castellon vs Malaga?

CD Castellon 2-1 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Castellon vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split CD Castellon 53%, draw 25%, Malaga 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Castellon) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS2 More Spain - 2nd Division
2 Nov 2025
16:00 FC Andorra vs Cadiz Analysis →
18:15 Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas Analysis →
18:15 Cordoba vs Ceuta Analysis →
23:00 Real Zaragoza vs Deportivo La Coruna Analysis →