Charlton Athletic 0-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Feb 2024

Charlton Athletic
0-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.59
1/2
8%
23.45
1/X
4%
12.9
X/1
8%
6.86
X/2
12%
4.87
X/X
16%
5.08
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
25%
2.84
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Charlton Athletic v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
1.14/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.06
-10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
260 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 74%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
18.2 Crosses 23.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Derby County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
278 Passes 355
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.02.2023 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
06.08.2022 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
30.12.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
19.10.2019 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
16.04.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.08.2015 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL

Charlton Athletic 0-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
0-1
AWAY Derby County
0.77 xG 0.49
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
360 Passes 191
74% Pass Accuracy 63%
17 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County nicked a narrow win over Charlton Athletic 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 61% of the ball to Derby County's 39%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.77 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?

Charlton Athletic 0-1 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 28%, draw 27%, Derby County 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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