Watford 0-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 3 Feb 2024

Watford
0-1 HT 0-1
Cardiff City
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Watford vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.56
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
11%
4.2
X/2
11%
7.69
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
9%
5.93
2/X
9%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Watford v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +27%
1.42/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.27
+7% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +13%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 69%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.5 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Watford vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.01
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
424 Passes 214
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
19.04.2023 Watford Watford 1-3 HT 1-3 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
02.11.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
13.03.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
05.12.2020 Watford Watford 0-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
22.02.2019 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-5 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNP

Watford 0-1 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
0-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.13 xG 0.46
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
461 Passes 275
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Watford vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff City nicked a narrow win over Watford 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Watford at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Watford had 62% of the ball to Cardiff City's 38%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.13 to 0.46 — on chances, Watford could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Watford and 1.33 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Watford vs Cardiff City?

Watford 0-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Watford 44%, draw 28%, Cardiff City 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Watford) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Watford) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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