West Bromwich 1-0 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
12%
12.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
21%
3.86
X/2
8%
9.59
X/X
7%
5.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.0
2/2
7%
7.51
2/X
9%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Bromwich EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.67/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.52
-5% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
371 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 70%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
25.1 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Bromwich
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Birmingham
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 0.94
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
367 Passes 166
77% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 3-1 HT 2-1 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
10.02.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 2-0 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
14.09.2022 West Bromwich West Bromwich 2-3 HT 1-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
03.04.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
15.10.2021 West Bromwich West Bromwich 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
20.06.2020 West Bromwich West Bromwich 0-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Bromwich
1-0
AWAY Birmingham
0.71 xG 0.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
309 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH West Bromwich vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Bromwich squeezed past Birmingham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had West Bromwich as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, West Bromwich had 50% of the ball to Birmingham's 50%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.71 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for West Bromwich and 1.50 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of West Bromwich vs Birmingham?

West Bromwich 1-0 Birmingham in the England - Championship on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Bromwich vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Bromwich win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split West Bromwich 57%, draw 22%, Birmingham 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Bromwich), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (West Bromwich) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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