Rot-Weiss Essen 4-3 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
20%
3.69
X/2
7%
11.9
X/X
11%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✓
10%
22.6
2/2
12%
9.42
2/X
5%
17.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 20%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.88
-47% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Freiburg II
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-2 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
01.04.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-0 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
09.10.2022 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-3 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4-3
AWAY Freiburg II
65% Ball Possession 35%
23 Total Shots 6
14 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen nicked a narrow win over Freiburg II 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rot-Weiss Essen as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 65% of the ball to Freiburg II's 35%, shots finished 23-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Essen had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 0.00 for Freiburg II.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Freiburg II?

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-3 Freiburg II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 53%, draw 22%, Freiburg II 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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