Unterhaching 1-0 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
12%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.34
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
14%
5.2
X/2
12%
5.95
X/X
8%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.5
2/2
18%
4.03
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.8pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.7pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Unterhaching EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.42/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.80/1.15
+11% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
281 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 74%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
13.7 Crosses 32.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Unterhaching
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Verl
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Verl Verl 0-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
14.03.2021 Verl Verl 2-1 HT 2-1 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
12.01.2021 Unterhaching Unterhaching 3-4 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Unterhaching
1-0
AWAY Verl
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Unterhaching vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Unterhaching nicked a narrow win over Verl 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 37%) promised a tight game; Unterhaching found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Unterhaching had 37% of the ball to Verl's 63%, shots finished 6-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Verl led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Unterhaching and 2.00 for Verl.

What was the final score of Unterhaching vs Verl?

Unterhaching 1-0 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Unterhaching vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated a Unterhaching win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Unterhaching 41%, draw 22%, Verl 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Unterhaching), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Unterhaching) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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