Malmö FF 1-1 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.16
Draw
16%
6.26
Away
22%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.89
Over 2.5
55%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.47
2-3 Goals
42%
2.12
4-5 Goals
24%
2.51
6+ Goals
14%
5.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
81%
-18.9pp
16%
Draw
13%
+3.5pp
22%
Away Win
6%
+15.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
31%
+14.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
69%
-14.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.38/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.78
-4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -15%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
515 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
1-1
AWAY Varbergs
77% Ball Possession 23%
24 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF and Varbergs shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Malmö FF at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Malmö FF had 77% of the ball to Varbergs's 23%, shots finished 24-6.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs Varbergs?

Malmö FF 1-1 Varbergs in the Sweden - Cup on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 62%, draw 16%, Varbergs 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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