Deportivo La Coruna 4-1 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 Mar 2024

Deportivo La Coruna
4-1 HT 1-0
Lugo
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2023/2024

Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.45
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.35
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-16.4pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.6pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.6pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo La Coruna v Lugo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Coruna EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.48/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/0.80
+8% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
12.0 Crosses 16.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lugo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.20 xG 0.61
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
398 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Lugo Lugo 0-3 HT 0-1 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS3
01.03.2020 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS2
01.12.2019 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2
19.05.2019 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2
06.01.2019 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS2
08.08.2018 Lugo Lugo 1-2 HT 0-2 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna HAZ

Deportivo La Coruna 4-1 Lugo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
4-1
AWAY Lugo
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Coruna ran out comfortable winners over Lugo 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo La Coruna as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo La Coruna had 61% of the ball to Lugo's 39%, shots finished 21-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo La Coruna had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 0.33 for Lugo.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo?

Deportivo La Coruna 4-1 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Coruna win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Coruna 48%, draw 29%, Lugo 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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