Panserraikos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.64
Over 2.5
52%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.43
6+ Goals
10%
23.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.43 — our 24% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.18
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
11%
4.61
X/2
13%
6.28
X/X
12%
4.09
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
4.9
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
29%
+8.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
57%
-9.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
43%
+9.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panserraikos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.34/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.96
+30% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
17.5 Crosses 16.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panserraikos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.96 xG 2.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
386 Passes 258
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.01.2024 Panserraikos Panserraikos 1-1 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUK
05.12.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Panserraikos Panserraikos YUK
02.12.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-0 HT 0-0 Panserraikos Panserraikos YUN
07.10.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Panserraikos Panserraikos YUK
09.08.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-2 HT 0-0 Panserraikos Panserraikos HAZ
16.12.2015 Panserraikos Panserraikos 0-1 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panserraikos
2-1
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
2.56 xG 0.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
336 Passes 268
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panserraikos squeezed past Asteras Tripolis 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Panserraikos made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Panserraikos had 55% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 45%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 2.56 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Panserraikos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panserraikos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Panserraikos and 0.67 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?

Panserraikos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Asteras Tripolis win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Panserraikos 37%, draw 25%, Asteras Tripolis 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Asteras Tripolis) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Asteras Tripolis) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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