Aris Saloniki 3-3 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
52%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.77
6+ Goals
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 35% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
11.2
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
12%
19.45
X/1
9%
13.1
X/2
23%
3.47
X/X
8%
5.48
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
1.83
2/X
6%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+6.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
52%
Away Win
63%
-10.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 67%
+21% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.14/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/0.73
+89% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -13%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 82%
13.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
10.7 Crosses 19.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
0W-2D-4L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.74 xG 1.68
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
280 Passes 352
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 23
5 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
10.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
04.12.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
08.05.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-2 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
09.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
29.01.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
3-3
AWAY AEK Atina
1.51 xG 2.36
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 8
268 Passes 400
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 40
5 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki and AEK Atina shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 41% of the ball to AEK Atina's 59%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.51 to 2.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.67 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Aris Saloniki 3-3 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 22%, draw 26%, AEK Atina 52%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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