Aris Saloniki 1-1 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Cup, 17 Jan 2024

Aris Saloniki
1-1 HT 0-1
AEK Atina
📅17/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Greece - Cup – 2023/2024

Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.81
6+ Goals
7%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 34% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.33
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
8%
7.01
X/2
15%
4.46
X/X
16%
4.37
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.81
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
-0.5pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aris Saloniki v AEK Atina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 49%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.44/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.88
+85% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
0W-1D-5L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.67 xG 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
274 Passes 334
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
04.12.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
08.05.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-2 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
09.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
29.01.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
09.10.2022 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-2 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN

Aris Saloniki 1-1 AEK Atina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
1-1
AWAY AEK Atina
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki and AEK Atina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 38% of the ball to AEK Atina's 62%, shots finished 6-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.83 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Aris Saloniki 1-1 AEK Atina in the Greece - Cup on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 27%, draw 32%, AEK Atina 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AEK Atina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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