Atlas 3-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.39/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.57
-14% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
304 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.3 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 334
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
31.08.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
04.09.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
30.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.09.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-3 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
16.01.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
3-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.04 xG 0.51
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
305 Passes 445
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas beat Atletico San Luis 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atlas as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlas had 41% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 59%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.04 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico San Luis led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atlas and 1.33 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Atletico San Luis?

Atlas 3-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atlas 47%, draw 29%, Atletico San Luis 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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