Monterrey 4-2 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒05:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
5.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.98
4-5 Goals
24%
2.5
6+ Goals
11%
5.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.39 — our 23% vs market 13.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
73%
-9.1pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.2pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+4.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.94/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/2.07
+3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
411 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.4 Crosses 13.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.34 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
376 Passes 311
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.01.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
09.11.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.05.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
11.05.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.04.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 1-2 HT 1-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
4-2
AWAY Santos Laguna
3.03 xG 1.51
61% Ball Possession 39%
30 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
406 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
45 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey beat Santos Laguna 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterrey had 61% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 39%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 3.03 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monterrey and 0.33 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Santos Laguna?

Monterrey 4-2 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 64%, draw 21%, Santos Laguna 16%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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