Queretaro 2-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2025

Queretaro
2-0 HT 1-0
Puebla
📅03/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Queretaro vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 30% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.8pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.33/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.49
-11% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
18.9 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Queretaro vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Puebla
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
240 Passes 371
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
24.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
18.09.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
14.01.2023 Puebla Puebla 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
02.09.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
07.02.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 0-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK

Queretaro 2-0 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
2-0
AWAY Puebla
1.23 xG 1.60
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
283 Passes 382
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro got the better of Puebla 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Queretaro found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Queretaro had 42% of the ball to Puebla's 58%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.23 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Queretaro and 1.33 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Puebla?

Queretaro 2-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queretaro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 39%, draw 27%, Puebla 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queretaro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Queretaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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