Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Tokushima Vortis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
12%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokushima Vortis EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +24%
2.10/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.27
+8% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.97 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
250 Passes 595
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.09.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-0 HT 0-0 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
03.05.2023 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 1-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
13.04.2022 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 4-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
02.03.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 HT 0-1 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JLK
11.07.2021 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 2-2 HT 1-2 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
04.04.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-3 HT 0-1 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-1
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokushima Vortis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse and Tokushima Vortis shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Shimizu S-Pulse at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 46% of the ball to Tokushima Vortis's 54%, shots finished 9-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tokushima Vortis led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.83 for Tokushima Vortis.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokushima Vortis?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Tokushima Vortis in the Japan - J2 League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokushima Vortis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 52%, draw 24%, Tokushima Vortis 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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