V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.60/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.36
+20% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.07.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 5-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.07.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
01.05.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
14.09.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 5-1 HT 3-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
21.04.2021 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-3 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2-0
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki got the better of Montedio Yamagata 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; V-Varen Nagasaki found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 45% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 55%, shots finished 7-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 2.00 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata?

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 39%, draw 30%, Montedio Yamagata 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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